Market Commentary
Weekly Market Commentary
By: Greg Lai and Alex Hsaio, Co-Chief Investment Officers
Week of June 30-July 4, 2025
As June wrapped up, U.S. stocks continued to show resilience, choosing to focus on what’s going right. Despite global tensions, the week ending June 27, 2025, delivered some important market moves worth watching.
📈 Market Highlights & Key Catalysts
S&P 500 Keeps Climbing:
The S&P 500 hit new record highs last week, adding 3.45% despite worries about the Israel/Iran conflict. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are solidly positive for the year, up +5.65% and +4.3% respectively. Investors seem focused on strong U.S. fundamentals over global uncertainty.
🛢️ Oil Prices Stay Steady
Crude Holds Its Ground:
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, oil prices stayed stable around $65 per barrel. The big reason? The U.S. is now the top global producer, supplying over 22% of the world’s oil. That leadership is helping keep prices calm, even with issues in the Middle East and Ukraine/Russia.
💻 Tech Leaders Shine (but Not All)
Mixed Results for Big Tech:
Technology and Communication Services stocks have been strong performers overall. But not every giant is winning. Apple is down nearly 20% this year, lagging peers like Nvidia (+17.5%), Microsoft (+18%), and Meta (+25.5%). Challenges like slow China sales and an unclear AI strategy are weighing on Apple’s results. Meanwhile, small-cap stocks have underperformed large-caps by about 7.5% year-to-date, reinforcing that bigger players are leading in this environment.
💰 Fed Rate Cuts Back in Play
Easier Policy Hopes Grow:
Markets are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Dovish comments from Fed officials and the latest FOMC meeting notes have investors betting on looser policy ahead.
📉 Treasury Yields Ease
Bond Market Reacts:
Treasury yields fell last week as markets priced in the chance of Fed rate cuts. The 10-year yield dropped about 11 basis points to 4.26%, while the 30-year fell around 8 basis points to 4.81%. This “steepening” of the curve suggests expectations for easier monetary policy going forward.
🧭 Economic Data: Calm Surface, Underlying Worries
Key Economic Highlights:
While things look relatively stable on the surface, last week’s data offered some cautionary notes:
GDP (Q2, 3rd estimate): Revised lower to -0.5%
Core PCE Prices: +0.2% MoM (a bit hot)
Personal Income: -0.4% (below forecast)
Personal Spending: -0.1% (also softer)
Consumer Confidence: Fell to 93.0 from 99.5
Durable Orders: Jumped 16.4%, hitting a record $343.59B, boosted by transportation orders and tariff-related buying.
Last week showed the market’s talent for finding silver linings. While big names and certain sectors continue to deliver, others—especially those lacking a clear strategy (looking at you, Apple)—highlight the need for solid fundamentals and forward-looking planning. As July 4th week approaches, investors will be watching closely for the Fed’s next moves on July 29.
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