Semiconductors—From Hype to Hard Truths
Semiconductors have long powered the digital world from behind the scenes—until Intel’s “Intel Inside” ads in the 1990s put them on the map. Today, they’re not just powering your phone or laptop. They’re at the center of everything from national defense to artificial intelligence. And lately? They’re at the center of rising market risk, too. […]
Trading on Fear: Policy Shocks Behind the Market Moves
Trading on Fear: Understanding Policy Shockwaves Moving Through the Markets “Whipsaw movements in country tariff rates will do nothing to reduce already record levels of trade-policy uncertainty. Trump appears to consider uncertainty a positive for negotiations. For businesses and markets, it’s a drag.” — Economists Rana Sajedi, Maeva Cousin, and Tom Orlik @ Bloomberg Economics […]
Global Trade Made America Richer, Not Poorer
Global Trade Made America Richer, Not Poorer As we debated the merits of the Trump tariffs, many argued that global trade and the US deficit—Americans buying from foreigners—have made the US poorer. Many quoted our $35 trillion government debt as evidence of American poverty driven by foreigners, outsourcing, and trading. We think people are confused. […]
From McKinley to MAGA: Tariffs, Markets & Investor Risk
From McKinley to MAGA: What Tariff Politics Teaches Us About Market Narrative Risk Volatility is back—and so are tariffs. In recent weeks, markets have surged, dropped, and surged again in response to breaking news about trade tensions, especially between the U.S. and China. If it feels like we’ve seen this movie before, we have. […]
CPI vs Core PCE: The Inflation Metric That Moves Fed Policy
Fed PCE on Speed Dial: Why the Fed’s Got PCE on the Brain (and CPI in the Corner) The inflation data love triangle no one asked for—but the Fed can’t quit. If CPI is the loud, headline-grabbing ex, then PCE is the stable high school crush that knew you when. Most investors track CPI […]
Tariff D-Day: April 2 Is Almost Here
Tariff Sequel: April 2nd’s D-Day – Will the “Dirty-15” Have a Hollywood Ending? Ten days. Ten days until the economic equivalent of a high-wire act without a net. April 2nd looms, the date the White House has set for its “Reciprocal Trade & Tariffs,” a policy designed, we are told, to open markets, shrink deficits, […]
Tariffs & Trade: Will They Really Make a Difference in 2025?
Since the beginning of the year, markets have corrected from all-time highs, and many in the media attribute this to the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariff discussions. However, it’s important to remember that market corrections of around 10% occur almost every year. Given historical market volatility, the average annual correction typically falls between 7-10%, […]
Market Volatility Refresher: The Good, the Bad, and the Sentiment Paradox
The stock market has seen heightened volatility in recent weeks, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fluctuating sharply. The VIX, often called the market’s “fear gauge,” has spiked above 20 multiple times but has struggled to maintain those levels, suggesting intermittent fear rather than sustained panic. Market volatility often stirs mixed emotions among investors. Most see it […]
Much Ado About Nothing? Tariffs, Deficits & Fed Risks
During President Trump’s brief time in office, he has made many policy changes, stimulating debates and speculation. However, thus far, none of the changes implemented by the new President address the most formidable threats to economic stability in the US: large and persistent deficits and counter-productive Fed policies. President Trump’s earliest economic policy initiatives have […]
Demographic Shifts: How Aging Economies Impact Emerging Market Asset Prices
Perspective by: Jason Hsu, Founder & CIO at Rayliant Global Advisors / Portfolio Manager for $RAYC, $RAYE, $RAYD, and $RAYJ / East West Bank Chief Economist Famed French sociologist and philosopher Auguste Comte said that demography is destiny. Indeed, aging demographics are one of the most predictable macro challenges for humanity—the ultimate slow-motion train wreck. The world […]
