Op-Ed: The Fed Starts Predicting the Weather
📘 Part I: What the Bill Actually Does 1. Corporate Tax Cuts Made PermanentThe 21% rate is here to stay. No cliff. No phase-out. Just permanent low taxation for businesses large and small. The math is simple: Lower taxes → higher net income → higher EPS → higher multiples. And with full expensing for capital […]
Labor Strength vs. Policy Patience: The Fed’s Balancing Act to Serve Two Masters
As we move deeper into Q2 2025, the U.S. labor market continues to defy expectations of a broad economic slowdown. April’s jobs report showed 177,000 new positions, steady unemployment at 4.2%, and a modest 0.2% increase in average hourly wages—strong, but not overheating. 💼 A Strong Job Market, but Sticky Inflation While job growth fuels […]
CPI vs Core PCE: The Inflation Metric That Moves Fed Policy
Fed PCE on Speed Dial: Why the Fed’s Got PCE on the Brain (and CPI in the Corner) The inflation data love triangle no one asked for—but the Fed can’t quit. If CPI is the loud, headline-grabbing ex, then PCE is the stable high school crush that knew you when. Most investors track CPI […]
Last Week’s Markets Weather Tariff Turmoil
Last Week’s Markets Weather Turmoil Last Week’s Last Saturday, the President confirmed that he would subject Mexican and Canadian goods to the full 25% tariff – and Chinese imports to 10%. However, Canadian energy, including oil, natural gas, and electricity, will be taxed at a 10% rate. The levies will take effect on Tuesday. What […]