The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. Stated information is derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources that have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness. While Trek Wealth Solutions believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Trek Wealth Solutions’ view as of the time of these statements.
This material represents an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Unless otherwise noted, performance of indices does not account for any fees, commissions or other expenses that would be incurred. Returns do not include reinvested dividends.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value.
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When Will Clues to Tariff Impact Show Up in the Data?
📦 When Will Clues to Tariff Impact Show Up in the Data?
🧠 “Tariffs have a way of creeping into the numbers with a lag, and we haven’t seen policy like this in almost 100 years.”
— Ernie Tedeschi, Director of Economics, Yale Budget Lab
📉 Markets React Fast—But Data Lags Behind
Investor sentiment can shift in a flash—but economic fundamentals take longer to catch up. Stocks fell more than 17% earlier this year on trade fears, only to recover as tensions cooled. But under the surface, it’s still unclear how much tariffs are impacting the real economy.
📊 The Tariff Effect May Still Be Coming
Even under the best-case scenario, tariffs today are higher than they’ve been in nearly a century. Economists warn that inflationary effects from those tariffs may not show up in official data (like CPI or PCE) until 30 days or more after implementation. So far, the data has remained tame—but that may not last.
📉 Confidence Drops, Signals Get Murky
Consumers and businesses alike are showing signs of uncertainty. Confidence surveys are down. Payrolls are mixed. And April import data revealed a sharp 20% drop—something we typically wouldn’t see outside a recession.
📈 Chart: Monthly Change in U.S. Goods Imports
This decline may reflect companies rushing to import goods earlier in the year before tariffs took effect—then pulling back hard in April.
⏳ Patience May Be the Smartest Move
It’s a complex picture, and the Federal Reserve seems to agree. They’re taking a wait-and-see approach, watching the data roll in before making any moves. For investors, staying patient may be the most strategic play while the real effects work their way through the economy.
Advisory Services offered through Sowell Management, a registered investment adviser. This material is for information purposes, educational purposes, and/or illustrative use only. The material presented does not constitute investment advice and is not intended as an endorsement of any specific investment. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability, or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal, and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The views are subject to change and are not intended as a forecast or guarantee of future results. Stated information is derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources that have not been independently verified for accuracy or completeness. While Trek Wealth Solutions believes the information to be accurate and reliable, we do not claim or have responsibility for its completeness, accuracy, or reliability. Statements of future expectations, estimates, projections, and other forward-looking statements are based on available information and Trek Wealth Solutions’ view as of the time of these statements.
This material represents an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index. Unless otherwise noted, performance of indices does not account for any fees, commissions or other expenses that would be incurred. Returns do not include reinvested dividends.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is a market value weighted index with each stock’s weight in the index proportionate to its market value.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded “blue chip” stocks, primarily industrials, but includes financials and other service-oriented companies. The components, which change from time to time, represent between 15% and 20% of the market value of NYSE stocks.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market-capitalization weighted index of the more than 3,000 common equities listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The types of securities in the index include American depositary receipts, common stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs) and tracking stocks. The index includes all Nasdaq listed stocks that are not derivatives, preferred shares, funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or debentures